Dieting & The GameStop Phenomenon
Definition of Sustainable: “Able to be maintained at a certain rate or level”
Over the last 2 weeks, I’ve had several inquiries about what happened with stocks like GameStop and AMC entertainment. Not only was I having conversations with clients, but, total strangers I would come across who asked what I do for a living. I would speculate that people would like answers as to how a company like GameStop, potentially looking at bankruptcy, could see their stock price go from $20 to $483 in just a few weeks. The answer? A social news and discussion group called WallStreetBets (part of Reddit) decided to target some of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market, including GameStop. They initiated a group effort to buy shares in GameStop forcing those who were “short” to cover or “buy” into the stock when they didn’t necessarily want to.
What is short selling? This is where an investor borrows stock of a particular company and sells it in the hopes that prices for the stock will continue to drop. They borrow the stock on “margin” and if the stock price falls, their position will increase. They make money when they close out the position by purchasing shares to make the trade whole. Basically, it is the complete opposite of investing in a company in hopes that the company will do well. I do not like short selling. It is counterintuitive to my beliefs about the investment process. The first known attempt of short selling was in 1609 by a guy named Isaac Le Maire. Since the Financial Crisis in 2008 there have been restrictions put in place to limit some of the abilities of short sellers. I am thankful for this.
So how about the investors who came in to buy and “squeezed” the short sellers? Some have speculated it was a social movement, to punish short sellers and the like. I don’t buy that at all. It was a predetermined effort and news spread quickly. People wanted to make a “quick buck”. There were a lot of people that made some money on the way up, but, reality has set back in. GameStop shares closed at $51.10 as of February 11, 2021.
So are these types of trading practices sustainable? Certainly not. Investing is a marathon, not a race. The “quick buck” is a terrible way to approach the investment process. It’s not how hard-working Americans have saved for retirement over the years. As humans, we tend to like instant gratification and quick results.
Take the onslaught of dieting options out there. Intermittent fasting, plant-based diets, low-carb diets, paleo, keto and more. While many of these diets will help one lose weight, are they really sustainable? I don’t know, but, seems like a lot to remember! There are some basic things about health and nutrition that all of us should understand. I’ve tried quite a few of the diet fads out there and candidly, have felt great for a period of time. However, IN-N-OUT burger is part of my blood and I certainly enjoy a good Vanilla Ice Cream cone from time to time!
Bottom line: I support the Capital Markets and how they function. I do not like short-selling, but, it is a small part of the market that I hope disappears one day. Investing should not be viewed as gambling. Investing in stocks, bonds & real estate have been wonderful ways to accumulate wealth over time. Whether that be for retirement, philanthropy or legacy purposes, people have different goals with their money. Our strategies at Intrepid align with our clients goals-based planning. Let’s have a great 2021!
Positive Quote:
"Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world."
- Harriet Tubman
Fun Fact:
Last Fall, we saw 8 States in 7 weeks in our RV!
The Markets
Annual Market Review 2020
Over the past 12 months, we have endured a global pandemic resulting in numerous deaths and hospitalizations, mass layoffs, a sinking economy, and a contentious presidential election. Our lives and lifestyles changed, where working and learning from home became the "new normal," and in-person communication was replaced by virtual meetings. In short, 2020 was a very memorable year that tested our resolve, patience, and courage.
The year began with news of a SARS-like virus spreading in China. Little did we know the impact this contagion would impart on our health, politics, and economy. Late in January, the very first known case of COVID-19 in the United States involved a Washington state victim who had traveled from the city of Wuhan, China. By February, the growing number of reported cases of the virus prompted travel restrictions, stay-at-home orders, and shutting down of businesses both domestically and around the world. Aside from concern caused by the virus, we were consumed by the impeachment in February of President Trump, who was eventually acquitted by the Senate.
In March, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic as the spread of the virus reached more than 100 countries, with more than 100,000 reported cases. By mid-March, President Trump declared a state of national emergency. World economies and stock markets were rocked by the spread of the COVID-19 virus, leading to major market sell-offs, plunging stocks well below their 2019 values. The U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product decelerated at a rate of -5%, only to be outdone by a second-quarter deceleration of -31.4%. Fear became the motivating factor in our lives — fear of contracting the virus, fear of losing a loved one to the virus, fear of job loss, fear of economic failure, and fear of losing our money.
In response to the economic turmoil caused by the pandemic, several pieces of legislation were passed, including the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, and the massive COVID-19 rescue package, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), which included the Paycheck Protection Program and distribution of stimulus checks to qualifying individuals. In May, focus shifted to the death of George Floyd, which sparked protests and confrontations across the country.
The summer months saw a slight lull in the number of reported virus cases. Economies began to marginally recover, some businesses began to reopen, and travel restrictions were relaxed. However, as the availability of testing for the virus increased, so did the number of reported cases. Following the Democratic and Republican national conventions, the campaign for the presidential election captured the focus of most Americans for the rest of the year, although COVID-19 seemed to cast a shadow over almost every aspect of our lives.
The November presidential election resulted in the defeat of President Donald Trump by former Vice President Joe Biden, with the post-election period dominated by attempts to overturn the results through federal courts and state legislatures. Some positive news came at the end of the year with the development and initial dissemination of COVID-19 vaccines and additional legislation that provided $900 billion in pandemic-related stimulus.
The new year brings with it a sense of hope: hope that the virus will be controlled; hope for a return to some form of normalcy in our daily lives; hope for economic prosperity and job security; and hope for peace, both here and around the world — and a good riddance to 2020.
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Snapshot 2020
Equities: As with almost every aspect of 2020, the pandemic impacted the stock market throughout the year. Investors began hearing of the possible spread of the virus in January, creating uncertainty and trepidation. By the end of February, investors sold more equities than they purchased, driving values down. By the end of March, the spread of COVID-19 throughout much of the world and within the United States prompted a major market sell-off. The first quarter saw each of the benchmark indexes fall far below its 2019 closing value. Fiscal stimulus measures in April, coupled with value buying, drove stocks to their best month since 1987. The possibility of a COVID-19 vaccine, a brief slowdown in the number of reported virus cases, and the onset of the summer season provided enough encouragement for investors to stay in the market. Throughout the rest of the year, despite a resurgence in the number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, an historic number of unemployment claims, delays in the long-awaited vaccine, and additional stimulus, investors saw hope that the economy would turn the corner and that the virus would be contained. Those factors, coupled with the low interest-rate environment, made stocks a viable option.
On the last day of the year, the Dow and the S&P 500 ended at all-time highs. In fact, the fourth quarter was robust for stocks, with each of the major indexes posting double-digit gains, headed by the small caps of the Russell 2000, which surged to a gain of 31.3% over the prior quarter. Despite the turmoil and early-year losses, all of the benchmark indexes listed here closed 2020 well ahead of their 2019 closing marks. The tech stocks of the Nasdaq, which gained more than 43.0%, led the way, followed by the Russell 2000, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Global Dow.
Bonds: U.S. Treasury yields generally trended lower in 2020, never reaching their 2019 year-end high of 1.91%. Muted inflation and low interest rates drove bond prices up and yields down. Ten-year Treasuries hit an all-time low of 0.3% in March as investors ran from stocks in favor of bonds. The impact of COVID-19 kept investors on edge as the economy drifted toward a recession. As parts of the economy began to slowly recover, investors again moved toward stocks and away from bonds, pushing yields higher. The yield on 10-year Treasuries ultimately closed 2020 at 0.91%, down 100 basis points from where it began the year.
Oil: Oil prices began 2020 at $63.05 per barrel, only to slump throughout the rest of the year. Oil demand declined drastically following COVID-19-related lockdowns and travel restrictions. An all-out oil price war in March and part of April drove prices below $20.00 per barrel. An agreement in mid-April to cut petroleum output helped stabilize prices. For the year, crude oil prices averaged about $39.00 per barrel, ultimately closing at $48.44 per barrel on December 31.
FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee lowered interest rates dramatically in 2020 while instituting new and drastic measures in response to the economic turmoil caused by COVID-19. The year began with the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.50%-1.75%. However, due to the negative effects of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 150 basis points to a range of 0.00%-0.25% in March. In addition, the Fed instituted a policy of unlimited bond buying, including the purchase of corporate bonds; $300 billion in new financing; and the establishment of two new facilities, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to enable the issuance of asset-backed securities, and a Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to eligible small and medium-sized businesses. The target range for the federal funds rate stayed at 0.00%-0.25% through December and will likely remain there for most of 2021. The Fed also committed to continue increasing its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Currencies:The United States Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), which measures the U.S. dollar against the currencies of several other countries, hit a high of $102.99 in March. It closed at $89.91 on December 31, having fallen nearly 9.0% since the beginning of the year. The huge expansion of the national debt coupled with the continued impact of COVID-19 could keep the dollar from gaining upward momentum for quite some time.
Gold: Gold prices began the year at $1,524.50 and closed 2020 at $1,901.70, an increase of nearly 25.0%. During the year, gold fell to $1,450.90 in March, only to surge to $2,089.20 in mid-August. Investors turned to gold amid the growing uncertainty of COVID-19. A depreciating dollar and receding bond yields added to the appeal of gold for investors.
Eye on the Year Ahead
The year 2021 should bring continued economic recovery. As the United States and the world inch slowly toward normalcy following the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, stock markets, employment, and production should also advance.
Data sources: Contribution provided by Forefield. Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
I look forward to continuing to guide clients through 2021 and beyond. If you have a friend or family member that you think would benefit from working with me, please don’t hesitate to make the introduction. Thank you for your trust and business.
